Title:
Credence without Probability
Abstract:
I develop the Typicality Principle of Expectations (TPE), a novel rationality principle that links typicality-based probabilistic explanations with expectations about the future. I argue that TPE offers a more coherent foundation in the context of typicality-based probabilistic explanations for expectations than traditional rationality principles, including Cournot's Principle, Locke's Principle of Proportionality and Lewis's Principal Principle. The framework of the TPE will ultimately reject a fundamental assumption about probability, namely, its Janus-faced dual nature, as representing objective chance and credences. Thus, I advocate a monistic account of probability: probabilities reflect purely statistical patterns and do not directly map to credences.